The Kennedy Double Standard

Written by Ivan on 11:01 AM

It seems that everyone has a bone to pick with the possibility of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary Clinton as the junior senator in New York. Oddly enough many of the criticisms being leveled against Kennedy could have been used against Clinton when she moved to the state, but weren’t.

Much of the criticism of Kennedy has revolved around her being a carpet bagger with no elected political experience. The same could have been said of Hillary Clinton when she located to the state after the end of her husband’s presidency. Clinton was certainly a carpet bagger with even less knowledge and experience in the state than Kennedy has, yet Mrs. Clinton was embraced while Kennedy has been criticized.

Part of the problem, as Susan Dominus pointed out in yesterday’s New York Times, involves personality. In public, Kennedy has seemed similar to her mother. She looked uncomfortable in the beginning of her appearances for Obama. She lacks the charm and charisma of her late father and brother. She has lived a private life out of the spotlight which is why her interest in the Senate seat was a surprise.

Hillary Clinton ended up fitting into New York City very quickly. She demonstrated herself to be a blue collar hard worker for her constituents all over the state. Mrs. Clinton’s experience as First Lady negated much of the criticism about her lack of experience. Caroline Kennedy does not have Clinton’s resume.

After George W. Bush, I think that many people are tired of political dynasties like the Bushes, the Clintons, and the Kennedys. Much of the criticism of Kennedy is centered on the idea of entitlement. Caroline Kennedy has never stated or acted like she feels entitled to the seat, but the very fact that a Kennedy could be appointed to a Senate seat rubs some people the wrong way.

Even though Kennedy has the intelligence to be a good senator, and she may very well get the appointment, she might have been better served by a special election process instead of a gubernatorial selection. If she is appointed, people will wonder if she got the seat because of her last name.

Maybe Kennedy really has been motivated by Obama to get into public service, but I personally don’t like celebrity candidacies whether they are Republican or Democratic. Kennedy needs to explain her policy positions to the people of her state. Otherwise, it will appear that her main qualification is her last name.

Obama's story, written by Obama

Written by Ivan on 10:56 AM

Barack Obama was a first-time author and rookie politician embarking upon his first run for public office. Hermene Hartman was the publisher of N'Digo, a magazine in Chicago aimed at upscale black readers. As Hartman tells it, she got a call from Obama in the fall of 1995 saying he wanted to come and talk. He wanted her to read his newly published memoir.

Hartman read the book, "Dreams From My Father," but chose not to review it. Obama's life story struck her as too exotic for her readers — the Kenyan father, the white mother, the childhood in Honolulu and Jakarta, Indonesia. But she felt she had gotten to know him from his writing; when he ran for the United States Senate eight years later, N'Digo became the first magazine to put Obama on its cover.

"Barack is a very focused, determined person," said Hartman, who now considers Obama a friend. "Barack would go to people one by one and say, 'Here's my book, I want you to read it, give me feedback.' For me, as a publisher, he wanted me to write about it. He would call me every week and say, 'Did you read my book?' "

Senator Obama understands as well as any politician the power of a well-told story. He has risen in politics less on his track record than on his telling of his life story — a tale he has packaged into two hugely successful books that have helped make him a mega-best-selling, two-time Grammy-winning millionaire front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination at age 46. According to his publisher, there are more than three million copies of his books in print — and two more books on the way.

The story of Obama's life as an author tells as much about him as some of the stories he has recounted in his books. It possesses at times the same charmed quality sometimes ascribed to his political ascent — an impression of ease, if not exactly effortlessness, that obscures a more complex amalgam of drive, ambition, timing and the ability to recognize an opportunity and to do what it takes to seize it.


Just as he was eager to promote his first book to Hartman, he has made the most of his second. When his keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention sent his memoir soaring out of obscurity and straight onto the best-seller list, he untethered himself from his longtime literary agent in favor of Robert Barnett, the Washington lawyer who had gotten Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton an $8 million book advance and then landed Obama a $1.9 million, three-book deal.

He finished his second book, "The Audacity of Hope," 18 months into his first term in the Senate, edited the proofs late at night on a congressional fact-finding trip to Africa, plunged into campaigning for colleagues in the midterm elections, took time out for a 12-city book tour, appeared on programs like "The Oprah Winfrey Show" and "Charlie Rose," then announced four months later that he was running for president.

The books have defined Obama's public image in a way that few books by politicians have done. Reporters paw through them for insights into Obama the candidate, supplied by Obama the author. Out of his story, he has also drawn the central promise of his campaign: if a biracial son of a Kenyan and a Kansan could reconcile the seemingly irreconcilable in himself, a divided country could do the same.

His memoir is, as one publisher put it, "the single most vetted book in American politics right now." Written at a time when Obama says he was thinking less about a career in politics than about simply writing a good book, it leaves an impression of candidness and authenticity that gives it much of its power. Reporters have questioned Obama's use of fictional techniques like composite characters, but some editors and critics say that is common in memoirs.

"The book is so literary," said Arnold Rampersad, a professor of English at Stanford University who teaches autobiography and is the author of a recent biography of Ralph Ellison. "It is so full of clever tricks — inventions for literary effect — that I was taken aback, even astonished. But make no mistake, these are simply the tricks that art trades in, and out of these tricks is supposed to come our realization of truth."

In a telephone interview on Friday, Obama said he would not be surprised if some people had gotten involved in his campaign "because they feel they know me through my books." But he said he was not even thinking about political consequences when he wrote the memoir. In fact, he said, one editor warned him back then that his references to drug use could come back to haunt him — if he were ever nominated for the Supreme Court.


"This is an example of what happens when you look at things backwards," Obama said when asked whether he had his political future in mind when he first began to write. "Then everything looks like, 'Ah! Of course this was part of some well-calibrated consideration.' But frankly, no. It would have been very hard for me to anticipate that I'd be where I am today, where a book that I wrote almost 20 years ago now would even be read."

Early Exposure

Obama's story first surfaced publicly in February 1990, when he was elected as the first black president of The Harvard Law Review. An initial wire service report described him simply as a 28-year-old, second-year student from Hawaii who had "not ruled out a future in politics"; but in the days that followed, newspaper reporters grew interested and produced long, detailed profiles of Obama.

The coverage prompted a call to him from Jane Dystel, a gravelly-voiced literary agent described by Peter Osnos, then the publisher of Times Books, as "a good journeyman with a hard edge." The home page of her firm's Web site currently features clients' best sellers including "Lies at the Altar: The Truth About Great Marriages." Dystel suggested Obama write a book proposal. Then she got him a contract with Poseidon Press, a now-defunct imprint of Simon & Schuster. When he missed his deadline, she got him another contract and a $40,000 advance from Times Books.

Obama's original plan was to write a book about race relations. But, sitting down to write, he found his mind "pulled toward rockier shores." So the book became more personal — the record of an interior journey, as he put it in the introduction, "a boy's search for his father, and through that a search for a workable meaning for his life as a black American."

Obama was given an office to write in at the University of Chicago through a surprising connection. Douglas Baird, a professor who was head of the law school's appointments committee, had learned of Obama from Michael McConnell, a conservative constitutional scholar then at Chicago whom President George W. Bush would later make a U.S. judge.

Professor McConnell encountered Obama during the editing of an article he wrote for The Harvard Law Review, Professor Baird said recently. "He sent a note saying this person is really brilliant, we should have him on our radar screen," Professor Baird said. Professor Baird called Obama at Harvard and asked if he was interested in teaching.

"I don't remember his exact words, but it was something to the effect that, 'Well, in fact, I want to write this book.' What he really wanted was the Virginia Woolf equivalent of a clean, well lighted room." So Professor Baird got him one, a small office near the law library, along with a law school fellowship that Professor Baird hoped might later lead to his full-time teaching.

By the time Obama landed at Times Books, he had a partial manuscript. He required minimal editing, said Henry Ferris, his editor, who is now a vice president and executive editor at William Morrow. He simply needed guidance in paring and shaping the sections already written and keeping the rest from becoming too long. The writing, Ferris said, "is very much his own."

The two worked mostly by telephone and by manuscripts sent by Federal Express between New York and Chicago. Obama, an inveterate journal writer who had published poems in a college literary magazine but had never attempted a book, struggled to finish. His half-sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, said he eventually retreated to Bali for several months with his wife, Michelle, "to find a peaceful sanctuary where there were no phones." He showed drafts to a few close relatives including his grandmother, of whom Soetoro-Ng said, "It probably made her a little nervous, having the family written about, just because you don't do that in Kansas."

In the introduction, Obama acknowledged his use of pseudonyms, composite characters, approximated dialogue and events out of chronological order. He was writing at a time well before a recent series of publishing scandals involving fabrication in memoirs. "He was trying to be careful of people's feelings," said Deborah Baker, the editor on the first paperback edition of the book. "The fact is, it all had a sort of larger truth going on that you couldn't make up."

A Memoir Revived

The book came out in the summer of 1995, shortly before Obama announced that he was running for the Illinois State Senate. At 57th Street Books, in Obama's neighborhood in Chicago, a few dozen people turned out for a reading. There were respectful reviews in newspapers including The New York Times and The Boston Globe. Times Books sold 8,000 to 9,000 copies.

"I joke that 290 million Americans did not buy the book," he said.

Kodansha Globe, a now-defunct branch of a Japanese company, bought the paperback rights for $5,000 to $7,500 and printed about 6,000 copies in 1996, said Philip Turner, Kondansha's editor in chief at the time. The cover carried a blurb from Marian Wright Edelman: "Perceptive and wise, this book will tell you something about yourself whether you are black or white."

"Even now, it's hard to get my mind around the idea that this person is in politics," said Baker, who described Obama as a born writer. "I actually think he could be a brilliant politician. He was ambitious as a writer in the same way — very cunning in the way he structured the book. I remember thinking, 'This guy really knows how to tell a story.' "

But within a few years, "Dreams From My Father" was out of print.

Then in March 2004, Obama's political and literary fortunes abruptly shifted. His victory in a tightly contested United States Senate primary in Illinois made him an overnight Democratic Party sensation. In New York City, Rachel Klayman, an editor at Crown Books, read a Salon.com article on Obama by the author Scott Turow, an Obama friend, titled "The New Face of the Democratic Party — and America."

Klayman looked up Obama's memoir on Amazon.com and found that the rights were controlled by Crown, which now had the Times Books list. She sent an e-mail message to her boss, suggesting that Crown reissue the book. She contacted Dystel and asked Obama to write a new preface, which came in nearly word perfect.

Then Obama was chosen to give the keynote speech at the Democratic convention.

Crown moved up the publication date, Barnes & Noble increased its order to 20,000 copies, and the book hit the top 50 on Amazon before it was even reissued. Bidding on eBay for a first edition copy hit $255. By December, Obama was the senator-elect and his book had been on the best-seller list for 14 weeks. And Dystel had initiated discussions with Crown about a new book contract for Obama.

Two weeks before Obama's swearing in, Crown announced that it had signed a contract with him for three more books. The first would offer "a window into the political and spiritual convictions that propelled Obama's recent U.S. Senate victory." The second will be a children's book about his life, and the third is yet to be defined. The deal had been initiated by Dystel, the announcement said, but "negotiated and concluded by Robert B. Barnett of Williams & Connolly LLP."

What happened between Obama and Dystel is not clear. Dystel declined to be interviewed for this article. Obama said, "It really had more to do with the fact that by the time 'The Audacity of Hope' was written, I was going to be in Washington and was obviously now very high profile." Osnos called Obama's decision to switch to Barnett, whose clients include former Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain, "disloyal but not unusual."

Others said it was understandable. "You're nobody in Washington without Barnett working for you," said a rival publisher, who asked not to be named. "Bob knows how to deal with the politics of a book as well as the selling of the book, Senate ethics rules, the advance. Bob is a fixer." Unlike literary agents, who take a percentage of an author's earnings, Barnett bills by the hour.

Obama completed "The Audacity of Hope" in the summer of 2006. This time, he distributed drafts to several dozen friends and Senate staff members, many of whom now advise his campaign. They included David Axelrod, his chief political strategist; Anthony Lake, who was a national security adviser for President Bill Clinton; Gene Sperling, a former economic adviser to Clinton; and Samantha Power, who recently stepped down as a foreign policy adviser to Obama after calling his opponent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, "a monster."

"He wrote very polished first drafts," said Cass Sunstein, a University of Chicago law professor who read drafts of chapters on the Constitution and economic policy. "He was very clear to me that these were drafts on which he hoped for comments. I wrote very detailed comments. And afterwards he accepted a small minority of my comments. I gave him some potential formulations for what he might write. He always put it in his own words. Not once did he use my words."

A Second Success

The book's release in October 2006 must have been the envy of anyone who ever published a book or contemplated higher office. In Chicago, people started lining up outside 57th Street Books at 4:15 on the morning of Obama's book signing. For his Seattle signing, the Elliott Bay Book Company rented the 2,500-seat hall where the symphony performs, sold out the tickets in 90 minutes and reported a level of turnout that topped all previous records at the store for any author, including President Clinton.

Time magazine published an excerpt of the book and put Obama on the cover, with a line that said "Why Barack Obama Could Be the Next President." An adoring photo essay inside shows him doing things like washing the breakfast dishes with his daughter.

"Barack is worth millions now," Osnos said. "It's almost all based on these two books, two books not based on a job of prodigious research or risking one's life as a reporter in Iraq. He has written about himself. Being able to take your own life story and turn it into this incredibly lucrative franchise, it's a stunning fact."

Last Israeli troops leave Gaza, competing pullout

Written by Ivan on 10:54 AM

JERUSALEM – The last Israeli troops left the Gaza Strip before dawn Wednesday, the military said, as Israel dispatched its foreign minister to Europe in a bid to rally international support to end arms smuggling into the Hamas-ruled territory.

The timing of the troop pullout reflected Israel's hopes to defuse the crisis in still-volatile Gaza before President Barack Obama settled into the White House. The military said troops remain massed on the Israeli side of the border, poised for action if militants violated a fragile, three-day-old truce.

Obama called the Palestinian president and the leaders of Israel, Jordan and Egypt, in keeping with his promise to get involved with Mideast peacemaking from his first day in office.

The Israeli troops' exit marked the end of an offensive that ravaged Gaza and left some 1,300 Palestinians dead, at least half of them civilians, according to Gaza health officials and a Palestinian human rights group. Thirteen Israelis also died.

Israel launched the war to halt years of militant rocket fire on southern Israel and to stop arms smuggling that put one-eighth of the country's population within rocket range, but by Wednesday smuggling was under way again.

The death toll in Gaza provoked international outrage, but in Israel, the war was widely seen as a legitimate response to militants' attacks.

The Israeli military announced Wednesday that it would investigate claims by the United Nations and human rights groups that it improperly used white phosphorous — an ingredient in weapons that inflicts horrific burns. Although the use of phosphorus weapons to mask forces is permitted by international law, Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing a war crime by using it in densely populated areas.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon left the region early Wednesday after touring Gaza and southern Israel. Ban called for an investigation into the Israeli shelling of U.N. compounds in Gaza during the fighting, which he termed "outrageous." He also called rocket attacks against Israel "appalling and unacceptable."

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was headed to Brussels on Wednesday, hoping to clinch a deal committing the European Union to contribute forces, ships and technology to anti-smuggling operations.

"She will sum up with the the EU representatives their involvement in the international handling of the problem of smuggling into the Gaza Strip," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor.

In a sign of Israel's concern over a hostile international climate, Livni's departure had to be approved by Foreign Ministry legal advisers concerned she could face lawsuits in Belgium over Israel's Gaza operation, government officials said. The trip was given the green light only at the last minute, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the deliberations had not been made public.

An EU commitment would build on a deal the U.S. signed with Israel last week promising expanded intelligence cooperation between the two countries and other U.S. allies in the Middle East and Europe.

EU officials said it was too early for that, saying providing humanitarian relief and efforts to secure a lasting cease-fire were their priorities.

"The situation is fragile," Javier Solana, the EU's foreign and security chief, said ahead of the meeting.

In the waning days of the Bush administration, the U.S. promised to supply detection and surveillance equipment, as well as logistical help and training to Israel, Egypt and other nations in the region. The equipment and training would be used to monitor Gaza's land and sea borders.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs emphasized that Obama would work to consolidate the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and expressed "his commitment to active engagement in pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace from the beginning of his term."

Some EU nations, notably Germany, have promised to help Israel stop the arms smuggling. The issue will likely be debated at a regular EU foreign ministers meeting scheduled next Monday.

Most of the smuggling was carried out through tunnels underneath the 8-mile (15 kilometer) border between Egypt and Gaza. Egypt has proved unable or unwilling to halt the flow of weapons and medium-range rockets coming through the tunnels, alongside fuel and consumer goods.

AP Television News footage showed Palestinian smugglers Wednesday filling a fuel truck with gasoline that came through a cross-border tunnel from Egypt. The footage also showed workers busy clearing blocked tunnels and bulldozers carrying out other repairs.

Iran has rejected the international attempt to deny Hamas weapons. In statements reported Wednesday on the Web site of Iranian state TV, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said because Israel is so well-armed, Palestinians shouldn't be barred from obtaining weapons.

Iran is one of Hamas' main backers but denies Israel's claims that it arms the Palestinian group.

Meanwhile, a Palestinian human rights group said it had completed its count of the death toll from the Israeli operation.

The Palestinian Center for Human Rights said a total of 1,284 Palestinians were killed and 4,336 wounded in the 23-day war. It said 894 of the dead were civilians, including 280 children or minors ages 17 and under. It cited data collected by its field researchers and checked against information from hospitals and clinics.

The PCHR was a main source of information about dead and wounded during the war.

The Israeli military says 500 Palestinian militants were killed in the fighting. Gaza's militant groups say they lost 158 fighters.

Last Israeli troops leave Gaza, competing pullout

Written by Ivan on 10:54 AM

JERUSALEM – The last Israeli troops left the Gaza Strip before dawn Wednesday, the military said, as Israel dispatched its foreign minister to Europe in a bid to rally international support to end arms smuggling into the Hamas-ruled territory.

The timing of the troop pullout reflected Israel's hopes to defuse the crisis in still-volatile Gaza before President Barack Obama settled into the White House. The military said troops remain massed on the Israeli side of the border, poised for action if militants violated a fragile, three-day-old truce.

Obama called the Palestinian president and the leaders of Israel, Jordan and Egypt, in keeping with his promise to get involved with Mideast peacemaking from his first day in office.

The Israeli troops' exit marked the end of an offensive that ravaged Gaza and left some 1,300 Palestinians dead, at least half of them civilians, according to Gaza health officials and a Palestinian human rights group. Thirteen Israelis also died.

Israel launched the war to halt years of militant rocket fire on southern Israel and to stop arms smuggling that put one-eighth of the country's population within rocket range, but by Wednesday smuggling was under way again.

The death toll in Gaza provoked international outrage, but in Israel, the war was widely seen as a legitimate response to militants' attacks.

The Israeli military announced Wednesday that it would investigate claims by the United Nations and human rights groups that it improperly used white phosphorous — an ingredient in weapons that inflicts horrific burns. Although the use of phosphorus weapons to mask forces is permitted by international law, Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing a war crime by using it in densely populated areas.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon left the region early Wednesday after touring Gaza and southern Israel. Ban called for an investigation into the Israeli shelling of U.N. compounds in Gaza during the fighting, which he termed "outrageous." He also called rocket attacks against Israel "appalling and unacceptable."

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was headed to Brussels on Wednesday, hoping to clinch a deal committing the European Union to contribute forces, ships and technology to anti-smuggling operations.

"She will sum up with the the EU representatives their involvement in the international handling of the problem of smuggling into the Gaza Strip," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor.

In a sign of Israel's concern over a hostile international climate, Livni's departure had to be approved by Foreign Ministry legal advisers concerned she could face lawsuits in Belgium over Israel's Gaza operation, government officials said. The trip was given the green light only at the last minute, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the deliberations had not been made public.

An EU commitment would build on a deal the U.S. signed with Israel last week promising expanded intelligence cooperation between the two countries and other U.S. allies in the Middle East and Europe.

EU officials said it was too early for that, saying providing humanitarian relief and efforts to secure a lasting cease-fire were their priorities.

"The situation is fragile," Javier Solana, the EU's foreign and security chief, said ahead of the meeting.

In the waning days of the Bush administration, the U.S. promised to supply detection and surveillance equipment, as well as logistical help and training to Israel, Egypt and other nations in the region. The equipment and training would be used to monitor Gaza's land and sea borders.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs emphasized that Obama would work to consolidate the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and expressed "his commitment to active engagement in pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace from the beginning of his term."

Some EU nations, notably Germany, have promised to help Israel stop the arms smuggling. The issue will likely be debated at a regular EU foreign ministers meeting scheduled next Monday.

Most of the smuggling was carried out through tunnels underneath the 8-mile (15 kilometer) border between Egypt and Gaza. Egypt has proved unable or unwilling to halt the flow of weapons and medium-range rockets coming through the tunnels, alongside fuel and consumer goods.

AP Television News footage showed Palestinian smugglers Wednesday filling a fuel truck with gasoline that came through a cross-border tunnel from Egypt. The footage also showed workers busy clearing blocked tunnels and bulldozers carrying out other repairs.

Iran has rejected the international attempt to deny Hamas weapons. In statements reported Wednesday on the Web site of Iranian state TV, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said because Israel is so well-armed, Palestinians shouldn't be barred from obtaining weapons.

Iran is one of Hamas' main backers but denies Israel's claims that it arms the Palestinian group.

Meanwhile, a Palestinian human rights group said it had completed its count of the death toll from the Israeli operation.

The Palestinian Center for Human Rights said a total of 1,284 Palestinians were killed and 4,336 wounded in the 23-day war. It said 894 of the dead were civilians, including 280 children or minors ages 17 and under. It cited data collected by its field researchers and checked against information from hospitals and clinics.

The PCHR was a main source of information about dead and wounded during the war.

The Israeli military says 500 Palestinian militants were killed in the fighting. Gaza's militant groups say they lost 158 fighters.

Is Gaza war inevitable?

Written by Ivan on 5:33 AM

Government seems to have come to terms with inevitability of Gaza operation

Israel has been sitting on the fence for the last four months, biting its nails, counting Qassam rockets and looking impatiently as Gaza arms itself to the teeth and prepares for a confrontation. If we don't get off the grandstands and take some kind of action - on the security or diplomatic front - we shall invariably find ourselves on the court with thousands of troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

All the scenarios point to a war in the Gaza Strip, the most densely populated area in the world. The army is preparing for every eventuality, and it's beginning to look inevitable - a developing process that has reached the point of no return.

This is what Shin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin spoke about Tuesday. He didn't come to present armament figures, but to caution: A decision must be made to do something, whether diplomatic or a move that would thwart future developments. Otherwise we shall be dragged into a wide scale, uncontrollable conflict.

During a meeting with military reporters a month ago, Diskin noted that the timing of a large military campaign should be carefully weighed, because we must take "the day after" into account. No one is really interested in seeing the Palestinian Authority collapse, thus forcing Israel to reestablish the Civil Administration.

A senior defense establishment official says that each time the army asks the prime minister to change something in the rules of engagement pertaining to the Qassam launchers or to carry out a limited operation in the Strip along the fence the answer is: "No, we shall maintain the ceasefire to the end. So that when we have to strike we'll have clean hands in the eyes of the international community and we'll gain support."

The defense establishment feels that even the political echelons have already come to terms with the inevitability of a military operation.

Hamas prepares for IDF assault

A twin engine rocket with a 16 kilometer (10 mile) range has already landed in Ashkelon close to Kibbutz Bror Hail, and the clock is still ticking. The Palestinian military industry will soon have a production line for rockets with even longer ranges. Grad missiles with a 20 kilometer range have already been smuggled into the Strip and are being duplicated by the locals.

According to the Shin Bet chief's forecast, some 200,000 Israelis will find themselves under the threat of missile fire from Gaza as early as this year. The Home Front Command has already drawn up a plan at a cost of a billion and a half shekels (roughly USD 400 million) for reinforcing the communities located up to 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Strip; however, it doesn't seem like anyone is planning to really budget the plan.

In parallel to upgrading the rockets against the Israeli home front, Hamas is working on efficiently hindering an Israeli ground assault. Four divisions have already been established. The Hamas army, which is based on the Hizbullah model and already numbers 8,000, is well equipped and trained. Its troops are sent to Iran for studies and training, where they learn the Hizbullah lessons from the last war.

The assumption is that Hamas' strength currently equals that of Hizbullah in 2001. And just like in Lebanon, bunkers and underground tunnels under built-up areas are also being constructed in order to withstand the IDF's aerial bombing.

This effective military might, which is improving daily, is being accumulated under the IDF's nose. A significant improvement was made recently in its capability to deal with the IDF's armored vehicles by enhancement of its explosive devices and purchase of innovative anti-tank weapons.

Then there are another 5,500 troops, the Hamas security forces, who demonstrated an impressive capability against Fatah in recent months. The war taking shape in the Gaza Strip is not inevitable. The question is where to find the leadership that would make the right decisions.

Gaza, Israel, War, Peace

Written by Ivan on 5:31 AM

Obama said : "If somebody was sending rockets into my house where my two daughters sleep at night, I'm going to do everything in my power to stop that. I would expect Israelis to do the same thing."




This is the very basic issue. Whether it is Bush or Obama, or Israel or France, or Russia or Egypt, no government is going to sit idly while thousands of rockets are fired at their citizens. Also if someone breaks into your house and kills one of your children with a club are you going to find a club to fight him proportionally while he attacks your other children or do you get your gun and shoot him?

On the other side Israel did occupy Gaza for 40 years and did little to improve the lives of the people. Israel did not allow self government and blocked any attempts to create an independent Palestinian state. In this Israel is guilty of neglect and inaction at the very least.

Israel, like it or not, is a permanent part of the middle east. 7 million Jews will not pack and move to Europe. Gaza must deal with this fact. Gaza cannot defeat Israel . They can as they have proved cause problems for Israel and even kill some of its citizens but as Israel has proved when this happens they can cause even more damage to Gaza. So for any resolution other than two more generations of war Hamas must accept Israel as a neighbor, while disputing the exact border, and learn to live in peace.

Israel can defeat and could even totally destroy Gaza if they are willing to commit genocide but they will not do that. If they did they would be a Jewish island surrounded by 200 million hostile Arabs, who would in the next generation overwhelm them.Israel must accept an independent Palestinian state, help it get started economically and engage in trade and cooperation with them. Otherwise Israel must reoccupy Gaza or face generations of fighting with Gaza.

And the debate on this is mostly not debate but is in in fact 90% propaganda talking talking points for or against one side or the other.

Israelis are Nazis.--Hamas are terrorists.

And more along this line. These types refuse to ad admit any right by the other side or any wrong by their side. "We are 100% right, they are 100% wrong." I even read one comment something like--go, Hamas, beat them we support you-- like some fanatic at a football game. Where is the real debate on the issues?

The primary issue now is to stop the fighting and killing. That involves two points. Israel must withdraw ground forces from Gaza and stop air attacks. Hamas must stop all rocket attacks against Israel. This cannot be one or the other but must be both. And it must be a sustainable cease fire. There was a 6 month cease fire that ended in December, which both sides violated. A sustainable one will require some kind of international presence on both sides of the border and enforceable sanctions for violations.

Can this be done? Yes. Will it be done? Maybe. Probably sometime this month there will be a withdrawal from Gaza and Hamas will stop firing rockets but observers on the ground probably will not happen. And probably before the end of this year there will be another round of fighting

Sad but true. I have no answer for this. There may not be an answer.

Israel's PR war

Written by Ivan on 7:46 AM

It had to happen at some point. The army attacks a civilian building identified as a source of fire; dozens of civilians are killed, and what little sympathy Israel enjoyed in whatever war it's currently fighting evaporates. It happened in Qana during the Second Lebanon War, and yesterday a school in the Jabalya refugee camp became a global symbol of indiscriminate Israeli aggression.

When these things happen, Israel is quick to respond on the public-relations front. It didn't take long before we foreign correspondents started getting text messages from the Israel Defense Forces on our cell phones. One said that the school was targeted because it was "a source of mortar fire." Another informed us that video footage was available of rockets being fired from another UNRWA school several months earlier. A third told us the names of the Hamas operatives who were killed along with the children and mothers cowering nearby.

I frequently get asked by Israelis, "why aren't we winning the PR war? Why don't people understand that this is what we have to do?" Many are convinced that there is something wrong with Israeli hasbara (public advocacy), that the spokespeople aren't effective enough, or that the Palestinians have a huge and demonically efficient propaganda machine.

When I hear this I have to explain that Israeli hasbara is so sophisticated that there is still no adequate word for it in English; that some of Israel's spokespeople could talk the hind legs off a donkey and then persuade the donkey to dance the hora, and that the Palestinians barely even know what a spokesman is, let alone be able to provide one who is available when he needs to be and knows anything about what is actually going on. So why isn't Israel winning the PR war?

Partly, of course, it's because the numbers are against it. Six hundred Palestinians dead versus nine Israelis, as of today's figures: There's just no way to make that proportion look pretty. Retired generals can drone on all they like about what "proportionality" really means in the laws of war, ambassadors can helpfully point out that many more Germans were killed than British in the Second World War, but these are theoretical notions; on television, what looks bad looks bad. (Nor do I really buy the argument that if Israel's casualties were more visibly bloody - if, say, the media showed the gory pictures of the few people who have been hit by Qassams instead of holding them back to keep the home front from getting agitated - then you could counter the stream of barbaric images from Gaza. There's just no competition.)

But the deeper reason is this: Israeli hasbara is perpetually trying to answer the wrong question: "Why is this justified?" Of course, it's natural for either side in a conflict to try to explain why it, and not the other side, has the moral high ground. But, especially in a conflict where both sides have been claiming the moral high ground for decades, nobody in the outside world is all that interested. From a foreign correspondent's point of view, it makes for boring journalism: "The Israelis said this, but the Palestinians said that." And since we're all studiously trying to be "neutral," we'll always balance your view against theirs; so the fact that you make more of an effort to explain than they do doesn't really matter.

The question the foreign media really wants answered is invariably not "who's in the right?" but "how will this round of fighting improve the overall situation?" And on that point, Israel never has a convincing argument. Given the country's long history of engaging in wars that kill many more of its enemies than its own citizens but only buy a few months or years of calm, it's a tough call to explain how this latest escapade will change the strategic balance, bring peace and prevent the need for another such bloodbath further down the line. Often that's because there is in fact no good reason: Wars are fought for short-term gains. And it doesn't help that with the constant competition for power within Israeli coalitions, it's easy to interpret this war, like many others, as a political imperative, not a strategic one.

And so when the question the world is asking is not "who's right?" but "what works?" the consistent impression Israel leaves is that it kills people because, at best, it simply doesn't have any better ideas, and at worst, because some Israeli leader is trying to get the upper hand on one of his or her rivals. And no amount of hasbara can make that look good.

Gideon Lichfield, until recently The Economist's Jerusalem correspondent, will be moving to the weekly's New York bureau.